Nile basin flow regimes under 21st century climate variability
Abstract
The Nile Basin, a freshwater resource for over 300 million people, faces unprecedented hydrological risks under climate change and transboundary water disputes. Yet, basin-wide projections of extreme streamflow events remain limited by fragmented modeling and insufficient integration of climate uncertainty. Here, we assess future flood risk in downstream countries using a calibrated, climate-driven Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, forced by bias-corrected CMIP6 models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, marking the first application of its kind targeting the Nile Basin downstream regions. Our results indicate a 63% (SSP2-4.5) and 85% (SSP5-8.5) increase in 100-year peak discharges in the 21st century, with extreme floods occurring nearly every decade under high-emission scenarios. Our climate-driven hydrologic modeling, risk analysis, and climate projections emphasize the need for coordinated planning, provide actionable risk information, and a framework for regional cooperation and preparedness to mitigate future flood risks and address water security challenges in the Nile Basin.
Keywords
How to cite
Elhaddad, H., Sultan, M., Yan, E., Tran, D., Torres-Uribe, H. E., & Karimi, H. (2025). Nile basin flow regimes under 21st century climate variability. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02813-0